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Luxury investors are a spoilt bunch. Listen to the mood music ahead of first-quarter figures and you would be forgiven for thinking that the sector was facing some kind of Armageddon. True, the discerning investor needs to be mindful of divergent performances, as spending slows after the post-pandemic frenzy. But the surprising thing about this crop of luxury sales is just how resilient many brands are proving to be.
奢侈品投资者是一群被宠坏的人。听听第一季度财报公布前的气氛，你可能会认为这个行业正面临着某种末日审判。诚然，有眼光的投资者需要注意业绩的分化，因为在疫情后的狂热消费之后，支出有所放缓。但令人惊讶的是，这批奢侈品销售中许多品牌表现出了惊人的韧性。
It is not hard to see why the market is minded to nitpick. A few names have posted ghastly results. Kering issued a double-whammy warning, flagging a 10 per cent decline in quarterly sales first, and then a 40 to 45 per cent fall in first-half operating income as its key Gucci brand stumbled in China. But Gucci is mired in a difficult turnaround, just as the market has become more selective. Those without homegrown problems have fared better.
不难理解为何市场如此挑剔。有几个品牌公布了糟糕的业绩。开云集团发布了双重预警，首先是季度销售额下降了10%，然后是上半年营业收入下降了40%至45%，这是因为其关键品牌古驰(Gucci)在中国市场的表现不佳。然而，古驰正在经历艰难的转型，正值市场变得更加挑剔的时候。那些没有本土问题的品牌表现得更好。
Take Hermès. The group has more customers for its £10,000 handbags than it actually produces. It can therefore increase revenues virtually at will, as exemplified by its 17 per cent increase in first-quarter organic sales. Perfumes and silks — products bought by the less-wealthy Hermès customer — only posted mid-single-digit growth. But the 20 per cent revenue growth in high-margin leather goods shows why the group leads the luxury sector on valuation, trading at more than 50 times this year’s earnings.
以爱马仕(Hermès)为例，其1万英镑手袋的需求量超过了实际产量。因此，它几乎可以随心所欲地提高收入，正如其第一季度有机销售额增长17%所示。香水和丝绸——这些是较为富裕的爱马仕客户购买的产品——只实现了中个位数的增长。然而，高利润皮具的20%收入增长，展示了该集团在估值上为何领先于奢侈品行业，今年的市盈率超过50倍。
Hermès’s strong performance underscores the fact that, in damped circumstances, super high-end customers feel the pinch less than so-called aspirational shoppers. That is borne out by the performance of Brunello Cucinelli, master of Italian understated luxury and of the $1,000 knit T-shirt, which posted an 18 per cent increase in quarterly sales.
爱马仕的强劲业绩凸显了一个事实：在经济不景气的情况下，超高端客户比所谓的有抱负的购物者更能抵抗压力。这一点在意大利低调奢华大师布鲁内诺•库奇内利(Brunello Cucinelli)的业绩中得到了证实，他的售价1000美元的针织T恤的季度销售额增长了18%。
The resilience of the megarich is not the only reason for the luxury sector’s strength. Prada and Moncler, which both managed sales growth in the high teens, suggest that consumers are still flocking to trendy brands which are having a moment in the sun. And even behemoth LVMH managed to eke out a modicum of growth.
超级豪门的韧性并非奢侈品行业强劲的唯一原因。普拉达(Prada)和盟可睐(Moncler)两家公司都实现了高达十几个百分点的销售增长，这表明消费者仍然热衷于那些正处于风口浪尖的时尚品牌。甚至连奢侈品巨头路威酩轩(LVMH)也成功实现了微弱的增长。
None of this is meant to suggest that luxury can stretch out its post-pandemic boom — a period when many companies posted well beyond 20 per cent annual sales growth. But, in aggregate, the sector seems on track to return to long-term average growth rates of perhaps 6 to 8 per cent this year. Given how large luxury has become, that is a remarkable result in and of itself.
这并不意味着奢侈品行业能够延续其疫后的繁荣期——在这个时期，许多公司的年销售增长率远远超过20%。但总的来说，该行业今年似乎有望恢复到长期平均增长率，可能为6%至8%。鉴于奢侈品行业的庞大规模，这本身就是一个非凡的成就。
